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Monday, February 21, 2011

Bulls Season Review at the All-Star Break

If someone would have told me before the season that the Bulls would play 10 games or so fully healthy before the All-Star break and still had a 38-16 record at the break I would have thought they were crazy. Carlos Boozer missed the first month and Joakim Noah has missed the past two months with injuries. The one constant throughout the season has been Derrick Rose. Across the board, he is setting career highs in almost every one of his statistical categories. He is the top scoring point guard in the NBA and 8th overal leading scorer at 24.9 points per game, his assists are at 8.2 per game, good for 9th in the association, and he his 3 point shooting percentage and free throw percentage are at career highs of 35.5% and 83.8% respectively. Along with LeBron, he is one of the top canidates for MVP this season.



I have also been impressed with the play of Luol Deng this season. Though he is only scoring 17.6 points per game, which is about his career average (16.0 ppg), it has been his ability to consistently hit the 3 point shot that has suprised me the most. The ability to hit the corner 3 ball is critical for a team that has a player, in Derrick Rose, that can get to the hoop any time he wants. That corner 3 was limiting Deng in the past. This season, Deng has hit many big three's that he could not hit in the past. He also has had trouble staying healthy in the past. He has started and played in all 54 games this season. The last time he played an entire 82 game season was in the 2006-2007 season.

I am very interested to watch the rest of season unfold in the Eastern Conference to see who will get the 1,2, and 3 seed between Boston, Miami, and Chicago. As it stands today, Boston is leading the East by percentage points over Miami, who is number two, and Chicago is third only 2 games behind the two teams. The difference in being the one or two seed and the third seed in the East is going to be significant. As being the number one or two seed, you will face teams with losing records such as Indiana, Philadelphia, Charlotte, or Milwaukee (just for you Bucks fans out there). As opposed to the 3 seed, you are going to play New York, who can be a pesky team to play because of their ability to go off and make a ton of 3 pointers in a game, as was the case earlier in the season when they played the Bulls. The Knicks were 16-24 from the three point line, which is at a 66% clip.

However the real reward in obtaining the number one seed will be the second round opponent. A second round matchup of Orlando or Atlanta is more appealing than having to face Miami or Boston in round two. If you defeat Miami or Boston in the second round, you still have to go and play the other team of those two to get into the Finals. Quite the gauntlet if you ask me.

Playing at the United Center has been key all season for the Bulls. They have a 25-4 home record, which is second best in the NBA. Compare their home record to their road record, 13-12, and you will see that the Bulls are much more comfortable playing at home this season than on the road. The Bulls have 28 games remaining this season, 16 of which are coming on the road. They must find a way to improve their road record if they want to obtain the number one seed.

A question that I am pondering is if the Bulls need to make a trade before the trading deadline to improve at the 2 guard spot. Keith Bogans has started every game this year, but is only averaging 17 minutes a game. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver are the backups for the 2 guard spot. The problem with these 3 guards is that they all are good in one area and less than average in the other. Brewer and Bogans are more of defenders, however Bogans can occasionally hit the open 3 point shot. Korver is the exact opposite. He is a shooter who spots up and runs off screens for shots. His defense is defintaly a liability for this team. It would be ideal if they could combine these 3 guys into one player, but humans have not reached that part of science yet. There are rumors floating out there of the Bulls acquring Courtney Lee from Houston or Anthony Parker from Cleveland. The Bulls have great team chemistry and the question Gar Foreman and John Paxson have to answer is whether they want to roll the dice and make a move to improve their team with the risk of upsetting team chemistry.

I can see this team going 20-8 the remainder of the season to put their final record at 58-24. You want to be playing your best basketball in the later months of the season and this team has not played it's best ball yet because they have not been fully healthy. They play 16 games against teams that have less than a .500 winning percentage and only 3 games against either Miami or Boston, and 2 of those games are at home. Barring another injury to a key player in the rotation this team should finish as the number two seed and be right there for the number one seed in the East.