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| Kentucky Derby |
Toby's Corner has many fans in his corner, especially after winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Apr. 9. There are two reasons why I have him ranked on this list rather than the final one. First, his pedigree doesn't scream 1 1/4- miles, and second, he has a bad tendency to bear in right out of the gate, which if it happens in the Derby, will cost him at least a length or two. One thing to keep in mind when the post positions are drawn as another break to the inside will also negatively affect the horses to his immediate left.
I also wasn't that impressed with the field Toby's Corner beat in the Wood. Arthur's Tale, the second-place finisher, had previously run fourth in two non-graded stakes races, while Uncle Mo ran at about 75percent efficiency due to his gastrointestinal infection. In addition, it's very rare for horses that get a change of equipment in their prior start to come right back and win the Kentucky Derby. Toby's Corner added blinkers in the Wood Memorial.
Speaking of Uncle Mo, the Eclipse Award-winning colt has not developed into the outstanding three-year-old most everyone predicted. His 2011 debut was a glorified workout in the Timely Writer Stakes and then he failed miserably in the Wood.
Uncle Mo has posted two workouts at Churchill Downs since recovering from his ailments, but instead of gearing up with a pair of stout works, his trainer Todd Pletcher breezed him in 1:01 4/5, and, most recently in 1:01 3/5. Pletcher and owner Mike Repole are saying all the right things about how well their colt is doing. Nevertheless, don't be shocked if Uncle Mo comes up terribly short in his bid to reclaim greatness, especially since he's not bred to get the 10-furlong distance. He'll definitely be a pace factor early on but he'll finish in the middle of the pack, if not eased across the wire.
Pants On Fire also comes in on this list despite winning the Louisiana Derby - his first winning race since last October. His running style will make it difficult for him to hit the board in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby as he is the type of horse that needs to be either on the lead or sit right off. Given that, he is not quick enough to maintain that position throughout the entire 10-furlong journey, considering he might not ever see the lead as there are faster horses that have superior early speed.
To that end, his jockey will play a very important role and that might be a bad sign as Rosie Napravnik is coming off a terrible meet at Keeneland. Moreover, this will be her first Derby mount so don't expect Pants On Fire to set the racing world ablaze this coming Saturday.
Brilliant Speed heads to the Kentucky Derby off a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, a race he completed his final three furlongs in 34 4/5 seconds - the fastest last 3/8 of a mile of any of the 1 1/8-mile Derby preps.
However, it also must be pointed out that Twinspired, the second-place finisher, came home in 36 seconds, which is also faster than every other horse entered in the race. And Twinspired will be one of the longest priced horses in the field. Furthermore, Derby Kitten, the winner of the Lexington Stakes a week later at Keeneland, came home just as quick as Brilliant Speed, so the odds are greater that the synthetic surface carried the Blue Grass winner to victory more than his own talent.
That's not to say he has zero chance to win. Brilliant Speed's two seconds in stakes events on the turf at Gulfstream Park were both very impressive, and his sire, Dynaformer, has sent three horses to the Derby and all three hit the board, including Barbaro, who won the race in 2006. Don't leave him out of any trifecta or superfecta wagers.
Mucho Macho Man will get a lot of support at the windows on Saturday. He has a very engaging name and the story of his trainer, Kathy Ritvo, overcoming a heart transplant will no doubt be talked about a lot this week. Furthermore, the colt was a very late foal (June) and is still filling out. On the down side, his breeding might cause him to stagger home inside the final furlong, particularly since he will be close to the early pace. He's also coming off a six-week layoff as the Louisiana Derby was run back on March 26. The son of Macho Uno has been working very well in the interim, but he enters the race with more negatives than positives.
The best of the second-tiered group is Santiva. He was originally on the "Prime Seven" list, but there are still many negative questions concerning his quickness. He's also only had one race at 1 1/8-miles (in the Blue Grass) and it was the worst performance in his career. However, he had by far the most troubled trip in the final prep race for all of the Derby participants. First, he was slammed into out of the gate and then was blocked on the inside throughout the entire stretch run. In his prior start (his first as a three- year-old), he was hung out four-wide for most of the race and still looked like a winner through the stretch. Unfortunately, he came up short by 1 1/2- lengths to Mucho Macho Man, who had a conditioning edge on the son of Giant's Causeway due to his race in the Holy Bull three weeks earlier.
Santiva matured very well by the end of his two-year-old campaign winning his final start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27. Not only did he take the Grade II event running his final 2 1/2-furlongs in 31 seconds, but he also had to battle in between horses to gain the half-length victory. He's bred to get the distance and his ability to sit closer to the pace than the horses coming from the back of the pack will enable him to get the first jump after the speed fades. Of all the horses that will be 20-1 or higher, Santiva has the best chance to pull the upset.
