Cold Front Headed for the NFL

Maybe the Mayans and Nostradamus were talking about the end of the world after all.  The only problem is, the real date is March 3, 2011 at 11:59 p.m.  At that exact point in time, the Earth may stop, volcanoes will erupt, and tsunamis will rise from the depths of the sea.  That is when the world stops turning for many football fans around the world.  The news coming from the NFL and the counter-punch from the NFLPA has led me to believe that this deal for a new CBA will not get done. 

Could this be the Earth at 11:59 p.m. on March 3rd? Or will the NFL get it done?

The fact that the league is prepared to put the NFLPA in front of the National Labor and Regulations Board signals a giant "oh shit" for me and the rest of the dedicated fans of the greatest game in America.  I understand that in negotiations you never present your best offer right away because then you have nothing to bargain with.  Another thing that scares me is how fast the deadline has creeped up on me in particular.  I never had a worry about getting a new deal done, but today it hit me harder than James Harrison hitting Charlie running a crossing route with Mitchy at QB.  Personally, there are just too many issues in play that I really don't see this CBA being signed by the NFL and NFLPA before the NFL Draft, and other analysts are predicting Memorial Day as a hopeful target. 

As a football fan and resident blogger, I'd love to go over all the issues, but that would not do them any justice, nor enhance your knowledge about the negotiating process, but I'll highlight the revenue sharing and do my best to try and understand both sides.

We've all seen the $9B figure across the screen whether we're watching ESPN, the NFL Network, and maybe even some local news channels.  To me I think this is the turning point of all labor negotiations.  This is the lead domino, but the problem is, it seems bigger than a brick pillar holding up Lambeau Field.  From what I understand, the owners are hellbent on reversing their misfortunes from the last agreement and want to retain more of the revenue. As it currently stands, the owners receive and automatic $1B dollar credit off-the-top of the revenues generated by the game to help cover various expenses.  Here comes the number crunching.  That means that the 32 owners, or 32 NFL teams each receive $31.25M from the start. 

Then the players get 60% of the remaining $8B which means that they split $4.8B.  The remaining 40% or $3.2B is again divided by the owners.  To me I really believe that this is a revenge tour fueled by greed from the owners because their 40% means they each get an additional $100M in revenue.  I also understand the concept of running a fully functional and successful business model, but my gripe with the owners is that they lack financial transparency.  That makes me as a fan, question their claims about decreasing operational revenues because I find it hard that they can't each cover $131.25M in expenses.  As a player, I also think I deserve to see how my CEO is running the team.  I want a detailed breakdown of expenses to show where the money is going when the owners take that individual $131.25M to the bank. 

If the owners showed legit findings that profits have decreased then I will change my argument, but right now, how can you argue with a group of 1,696 players that make up the NFL's starting rosters, and many practice squad players splitting $4.8B in comparison to 32 owners/teams splitting $3.2B.  I think my math skills tell me that something isn't right.  Don't get me wrong, I don' think the players should get more than 60% of the revenues and I think the system in place compensates its greatest athletes fairly, not ludicrously like the rookies (which is another debate), but I can't justify them getting less than say 55% of the pie in the end. 

Now, current talks have the owners proposing to skim off the top $2B to compensate for expenses, which doesn't seem unreasonable, but then it looks like they want at least a 50/50 split of the remaining $7B.  To me that is just downright hardballing the players.  Do you really think that they don't know the difference between splitting $4.8B and $3.5B? I'm not sure how this gets resolved.  If the players concede the $2B credit then I expect the NFLPA to bargain hard for no figure less than 55% because De Smith knows the players got a great deal last time, but that doesn't mean he will let the owners come in and steal the kitchen sink in revenue sharing. 

Also, I don't think I've heard this been said in talks yet so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this revenue sharing could be an area that helps the rookie pay scale and the retired players pension fund.  If the players concede to a rookie pay scale similar to that of the NBA where there is a 2 year contract with a 3rd year option, that moves to a 4th year option based on percentage increase of the 3rd year salary and then in the 5th year they move to a qualifying offer that is a percentage increase over the 4th year salary.  If the players give in to this type of rookie pay scale, which saves the owners money, then the owners need to lend a hand and put a percentage of their $2B credit into a retired pensions fund to help current alumni and set up current and future NFL players for a financially secure post-career life.  If they are willing to dump 10%, which is $200M a year, collectively as owners into the fund, I can't see why the players wouldn't be willing to take that deal.  Now obviously, I'm sure things are more complicated than this, but this is just a simple look into some of the complex issues both sides are dealing with...and oh, I didn't even mention the 18 game schedule. More to come on that in another segment.

-Pat