AFC Championship Breakdown: Jets-Steelers

Eric already wrote a terrific article on the Jets so I will try to keep it more to the Steelers, but I completely agree with him. The Jets have reinvented themselves overnight and we are seeing a different ball club than the one in November and December.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing consistent football like they have all season. They had some losses, but nothing that made people think what's wrong with the Steelers.  This game has a bunch of different angles to attack it from so I am ranking them by importance.

1.) The Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Line- Honestly, this is a problem that for whatever reason people aren't talking about enough about. Maybe it's because no one wants to talk about the hog mollies. The other reason they don't talk about is due to Big Ben being like Iron Man and shake off defenders like he once did investigators. Their offensive line is a disaster unit, and it amazing it didn't cost them last week. I expect a steady blitz from all angles.    

2.) Troy Polomalu's Health- Everyone says he is the greatest defensive player in the NFL, and it's very hard to dispute that. He makes some unbelievable plays and is a game changer in all facets of the game. But against the Baltimore Ravens, I didn't really think he made that much of an impact. He will be needed in the rush defense if they want to win on Sunday.  Honestly, I don't think the reason the Jets won in late December was because Polomalu didn't play, they were the better team that day. 

3.) Mike Wallace- I personally think that Wallace is one of the most underrated wideouts in the game right now. He reminds me of Steve Smith, an undersized speedster than can spread the field leaving the underneath routes open. The Jets secondary is a mixed bag; they have an excellent corner, a good corner, but two average safties.  I said last week that Wallace would hit one over the top, and got the wrong receiver because that's exactly what the Steelers did with Antonio Brown. Don't be surprised if they try a couple vertical throws to Mr. 60 Minutes.

4.) Jets Running Game- The Steelers have been damn near impossible to run on. The Jets are built on running the football.  In the first matchup, they rushed for overall 106 yards with 3.9 average.  Honestly, do you really trust Mark Sanchez to carry the Jets to the Super Bowl?  He played better last week, made key throws, and all of that good stuff yet I picture him overthrowing every receiver like he did against Indianapolis. Not to mention, the Steelers' front seven is the best one he has faced in the playoffs

5.) Kicking Game- You might wonder why this is final point, but let's be real here.  Heinz Field is one of the hardest places to kick a field goal in the NFL. Add to the fact, it will be bitter cold outside, and two unproven kickers.  Nick Folk has a leg, but he is susceptible to shanking one or two.  Shaun Suisham was picked off the scrap heap to replace Jeff Reed.  I could totally see one of them costing their team a chance to play in the Super Bowl.

My prediction is the Jets prevail on the road winning 13-10. It will be a defensive struggle, but the game will turn when Roethlisberger will be shrugging defenders off and the ball gets stripped from his blindside. The Steelers were underrated sloppy last week, but the Ravens ended up being more sloppy. The Jets have that swagger back, and Sanchez can do just enough to give them the victory.

-Charlie.

Rex Ryan: The NFL Post Season MVP

For all of his bluster off the field this postseason, Rex Ryan has been surprisingly conservative between the lines in the Jets' first two games.  Conservative is a word no one would have expected to hear when describing a Rex Ryan defense, but that's exactly what its been; and its worked.  It has been one of the best postseason coaching performances in history.  The big man with the even bigger mouth has some how managed to confuse the two best quarterbacks in the game today (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady) and outsmarted the best coach (Bill Belichek) all while leading his Jets to two wins nobody thought he could deliver. 

How did he do it?  He did it by doing what nobody though a confident, cocky, smack talking guy like Ryan could do.  He swallowed his pride.

Traditionally the Jets' defense is built on the blitz.  Rex loves to come at quarterbacks from all angles and get as many hits as possible throughout the course of the game.  In order to bring that extra pressure they end up playing a lot of one on one on the outside and they leave their corners and safeties on an island for most of the game. While the Jets have probably the best secondary in the game you just can't do that against Manning and Brady.  In fact, those two guys would rather have you blitz the hell out of them.  They see it before the snap, change a route, and before you know it a quick one step drop and throw turns into a big play or a touchdown.

One of the hardest things for anyone to do, especially the ultra competitive alpha male (99% of professional athletes and coaches), is to admit what your doing is wrong and make a change.  Ryan knew that the defense he has spent his entire life coaching was not going to work against these two teams; so he changed it.  In the Jets' first two playoff games this year they have rushed 4 or fewer men over 80% of the snaps.  The Colts and Patriots game planned for a hard rushing, oft blitzing Jets defense and Rex rushed four and sat back in coverage.  Nobody saw it coming.

It will be interesting to see if the Jets go back to their old ways against the Steelers and Big Ben (who is about as different a quarterback from Manning and Brady as you'll find).  Whether they bring the heat this Sunday or not, you can bet that Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have no idea what to expect going into the game.  For that reason I'll take the Jets to win the game and head to Dallas; and you can give Rex Ryan all the credit.

My Thoughts on the Weekend that Was.....(Part Deux)

What a weekend of sports. This is it though. The last great weekend. We had football on Saturday. We had NBA and NHL games that featured terrific match-ups. We had rematches in every single one of the playoff games. Also, we had the largest amount of trash-talking this season and probably in the last four or five years. After this weekend, the slow decline to only baseball starts. It's sad but C'est la vie.



The weekend started at Mongolian Grill in Bayshore Mall watching the Ravens-Steelers game. To be honest, I got bored watching the game. My friend Colin and I were entertained with the follies video that was on NFL network directly beside the football game. The thoughts that I had watching the end of the game were as follows: (1)Pittsburgh and Baltimore have great, opportunistic defenses and (2) Joe Flacco should not be mentioned in the "great quarterbacks today argument." Three turnovers on your side of the field will absolutely kill you. The Ravens had 3. The Steelers had 1. All four turnovers ended with touchdowns. Joe Flacco has a great arm. He is poised and large in the pocket. But, he can't complete the accurate passes that are necessary in the playoffs. I like Joe Flacco a lot, but I would spend the whole off season throwing those 15-20 yard tier 2 passes that he constantly overthrows for interceptions.

The Packers-Falcons game I will skip for now.

The Seahawks-Bears game was exactly what I thought it would be. The Bears have a great defense that feeds off the cold weather and a more than not aggressive opponent. Pete Carroll is lucky he never had to play a game in the snow with USC because he didn't know how to coach this game. The Bears were physical in the run game and Cutler managed the game effectively. Greg Olsen played a great game and finally proved to be the match-up problem that he was supposed to be early in his career. The NFC Championship game will be an excellent contest of bitter rivals, and I'm really looking forward to it.

Rex Ryan deserves all the credit in the world for the win in the Jets-Patriots game. He recognized what your esteemed blogger recognized: if you stop the 0-10 yard throw from Tom Brady, the Patriots offense is ineffective. The Browns stopped the Patriots earlier in the season, and Eric Mangini stated how to beat the Patriots which, coincidentally, is exactly what I have been preaching the last 8 weeks. Brady wasn't used to looking past his first read 5 yards down field, and that is why the Jets got sacks, and Brady looked confused until 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. This is the first time that the Patriots really missed Randy Moss. Mark Sanchez had a helluva game. He completed "Manning-like" accurate passes to Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. With the strong running game and Sanchez playing at an elite level, I think the Jets may finally get to the Super Bowl again.

The Packers-Falcons game was absolutely awesome to watch. Awesome is an over-used word in our society, but that is the only way I can describe it. Aaron Rodgers had the best game of the season (I won't say of his career because last year against Arizona was the best game). The run game wasn't there early but Rodgers made the big 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4 conversions that the Patriots and Colts couldn't make in their playoff losses. The Packers defense deserves all the credit in the world as well. I told my friend Colin at the beginning of the game, if they shut down Michael Turner, the Packers will win this game by 20. Apparently I was wrong. B.J. Raji is unbelievable in the middle. Tramon Williams, and yes Charlie, Sam Shields were terrific. This defense will need to step it up again on the run defense against the Bears. Watching the game with a die hard Bears fan was a mistake; however, I've already decided that Eau Claire is probably the best destination to watch the NFC Championship game. We will break the curse of Eau Claire for Packers NFC Championship games (more to come later).

Here's a few more tidbits from the weekend that was:
1. The pass to set-up the run strategy was at full force again this week. The Bears, Jets, and Packers all used it to tremendous success.

2. Aaron Rodgers should be in the Pro-Bowl. Tramon Williams possibly as well, but Rodgers getting snubbed by Brees and Matty Ice is absurd.

3. I was shocked to learn that this was the first time Jay Cutler has had a winning season since high school. He had a great first playoff game. The only question is whether it was because of Seattle being a terrible team. I think he will play well next weekend because he wants to compete with his friend and nemesis Rodgers.

4. Bill Belichick's decision to sit Wes Wlker did not sit well with me at all. I feel like Belichick dismissed his wide receiver for a momentary, albeit hilarious slip of the tongue. My thought on the matter is you will never see Rex Ryan sit down Antonio Cromartie or Bart Scott for speaking rashly. The Patriots could have used Welker on their first drive seeing as Brady threw his first interception in 219384739 attempts on it (not that he wouldn't have thrown it otherwise). I just think it was an overreaction.

5. The Miami Heat are the Cleveland Cavaliers 2011. Dwyane Wade is the only difference. Without Lebron James this weekend, the Heat showed that they have no identity on offense and defense. They lacked character against the Bulls, and when the Bulls made their runs with Derrick Rose, the Heat allowed them easy baskets and uncontested jumpers. I think that the Heat are probably a year away from being sheer dominant. I still think they can win the championship, but their overall dominance has yet to been reached.

"They Can't Stop A Nosebleed."

Bart Scott has now provided me with about four or five quotes next week.  CAN'T WAIT.  Also I don't blame Sal Pal for looking that scared, I would be too Sal, I would be too.  Power Rankings, and more thoughts on the Packers-Falcons game later today.

-Charlie.

The Divisional Picks.

This could be one of the better divisional rounds with all four rematches from the regular seasons, and two games with hated rivals. I will be missing Sunday games with work, which leads me to my first DVR football day.  I will probably know who wins before the games end, but that's okay.  Here you go with the picks. 

Saturday 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh- In my opinion, this is the best rivalry in the NFL because these teams hate each other, but still have respect for one another. The Ravens impressed me with their beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs after trailing 7-3 at halftime. The big news today though was Ray Rice caught the stomach virus, which could be a factor and we all know the flu sucks. It will be interesting to see if Rice plays or even contributes. I still don't trust Joe Flacco as much as I do with Ben Roethlisberger.   

People forget how good Big Ben is in the playoffs.  He has two Super Bowl rings already, and has a true deep threat in Mike Wallace.  The Ravens aren't that great against the pass, and I am willing to bet Wallace has at least one touchdown.  The one that pulls me towards the Ravens is the weak Pittsburgh cornerbacks. Bryant McFadden gets picked on all the time, and Anquan Boldin had two pretty solid games against the Steel Curtain.  I am torn on this one, and when that happens, you take the home team by three. PITT 23-20 (OT)  

Green Bay at Atlanta- The Packers are receiving a lot of hype in the last week as they were with Philadelphia but it still scares me.  A must for the Packers is to come out and hit the Falcons in the mouth in the first quarter. The Falcons haven't played a meaningful game since New Orleans further you can argue that game still didn't matter much because they knew Carolina was up next.  This leads us to their last important game on Thanksgiving weekend against The Pack.  If the Packers have a solid first quarter say a 10-0 lead or like a 14-3, this will be a Packer victory.  

Atlanta is a very good team when they have the lead.  They are not built as a quick strike offense that can score touchdowns at will. The Dirty Birds need to ride Michael Turner and long exhausting drives to win this game. In no way can Matt Ryan carry this team throughout the game.  For some reason ESPN fails to mention... Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game! Granted, it's just one game but that's the same thing with Aaron Rodgers but whatever. The Falcons are very poor against the pass and every good quarterback has done very successful against them. The Packer offensive line will be the key to this game, if they are great this could be a rout.  But it's a road playoff game so you expect to be close, and that's what I see.  GB 27-21  

Sunday 

Seattle at Chicago- I cannot believe people are buying the Seattle hype. I know this is Jay Culter's first playoff game, which scares me than becoming a part of the Human Centipede. I will be interested to see how he handles himself, but trust me, he will do enough to beat Seattle.  Here's the thing, the Hawks do have the momentum, but they went 2-6 on the road. In addition, Matt Hasselback looked the best he has in three years last week against a weak New Orleans secondary. Not to pile it on like my name is Clay Bennett, but Marshawn Lynch will not do anything against the second-best rush defense. They have four of the best tacklers in the front seven.     

Now that I am on fire like Reggie Miller at MSG, you mean to tell me that Russell Okung, the rookie left tackle has to stop Julius Peppers?! Child please.  I have a feeling we see Clipboard Jesus by the third quarter. To finish off why the Bears will win by large margin, the Seahawks are in the bottom tier at stopping the run and Matt Forte, if Mike Martz allows it, will run wild. The Saints weren't able to balance the run and pass leading to their defeat. The Bears will do it and win handily.  CHI 31-10

New York Jets at New England- People are pumped about this one because the consistent shit talking going on throughout the week.  While the Ravens-Steelers let their play do the talking, the Jets-Pats do not carry that same credence. If I am the Jets, I will take the Packers game plan from a couple of weeks ago. Just use their running game as much as possible, and try to control the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field.  But I keep coming back to Mark Sanchez's noodle arm.  I tweeted last week "Mark Sanchez blows" and "Glad to see the Jets figured out Sanchez has a noodle arm."  He isn't okay, I really think he is hurt. 

Another quick prediction is that Brady will go over the top on Antonio Cromartie in the first five plays of the game and if it's a touchdown, the rout could be on. Most people think this will be a blowout, but I honestly see a close game to the very end with Brady leading a last second drive for the win over Cromartie.  NE 31-28  

-Charlie.

Well That's That.......Patriots Win.

Antonio Cromartie just lost the New York Jets the divisional playoff game this Sunday. When asked about Tom Brady, Cromartie first called him an asshole. He then proceeded to say that he "doesn't give a damn about him," citing instead that he plays against the wide receivers, not Brady. When asked how he can feel that way seeing how Brady is throwing passes to those wide receivers, Cromartie responds, "yeah, but if I beat the [expletive] out of the receivers, he can't throw to them."

The best quote was when Cromartie was asked whether Brady tried to how him up on the field. Cromartie responds, "Oh no, he knows better."

WOW. Game over. Now I think my opinion on Tom Brady has been made perfectly clear, but he still is a great quarterback with an element of clutch and a sense of the moment that exceeds most other quarterback in the playoffs. Antonio Cromartie almost gave up the playoffs for the Jets in Saturday's playoff game. Peyton Manning dissected him with Pierre Garcon. Tom Brady with Wes Welker and Deion Branch will absolutely destroy Cromartie.

Make no doubt about it, the evil emperor hoodie is now going to devise a game plan that will expose and embarrass Cromartie. My prediction is that Cromartie gets burned for at least 2 touchdowns. Brady should run up to him and spike the ball in his face, and I will not fault him in the least.

Mike Greenberg's reaction on Mike and Mike in the Morning was absolutely perfect. After reading out Cromartie's quotes, Greenberg said, "Oh God (shudder), Shut up! Shut up!" I nearly snotted out my coffee laughing out loud. It's too bad, but I think Cromartie just handed Tom Brady and the evil emperor hoodie motivation that ultimately ruins any chance of an upset.

Put Up or Shut Up For Rex Ryan

Rex looks like he is asking for a GD snack

I am big Rex Ryan fan.  I liked the way he conducted his team during the Hard Knocks special on HBO on the New York Jets. I also enjoy the opposite of Ryan in Bill Belichick.  I respect how smart of a coach he is and who knows if there will be another like him.  Therefore setting the scene for Sunday afternoon's AFC East battle between the Jets and the New England Patriots is the head coaches, not the players.

 Ryan gives Belichick his deserved credit. He always gushes over the Grand Master Hoodie like a young brother looks up to his old brother. Despite the love and affection, he still bashes his star player Tom Brady.  The Jets want to take throne from the Patriots, there is no doubt about that, and the first step would be to win this weekend.



I like that Ryan defends and loves his team.  Ryan tries to make it about himself and not his players therefore when the Jets lose, the media bashes him instead of guys like Mark Sanchez or Darrelle Revis. But it boggles my mind why he still takes shots at Brady and Belichick?  Here's what Ryan said via ESPN

 "This is about Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan," Ryan said, addressing the upcoming showdown in Foxborough, Mass., for the first time. "There's no question, it's personal. It's about him against myself. That's what it's going to come down to."

Ryan also added that the players and assistant coaches are even in this battle. Which I don't think is entirely true as two evenly-matched teams do not have 45-3 results. Now, the Jets head back into the Foxborough with a chip on their shoulder, but will that be enough? If I am Jets fan, I worry that Ryan will overthink himself trying to 'beat' Belichick and forget key aspects of his game plan. I will talk more about the game on Saturday when I give my predictions for the weekend.   

I like the saying 'dont poke the bear'. Ryan is poking the favorite bear in the Pats, and who knows if you will incite a riot because of your choice words. If Ryan loses this one, the shit talk to Brady and Belichick has to stop.  Once Ryan takes down the Pats when it matters the most or finds himself in a Super Bowl, he can talk a little more. But right now, he is just a smart defensive mind that I would like to have a beer with, nothing more, nothing else.

-Charlie.